Links für den Intensivkurs “Besser einschätzen, besser entscheiden.“
- Spiegel Superforecasting, article. https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/vorhersagen-bei-fussball-krieg-und-wetter-neue-methoden-revolutionieren-die-genauigkeit-a-680d4779-4549-4bdd-98c4-b7027a218571
- Kozyrkov Statistical Thinking, video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJt-k9h9pmk&list=PLRKtJ4IpxJpBxX2S9wXJUhB1_ha3ADFpF
- Outcome bias, paper. https://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/brenner/mar7588/Papers/baron-hershey-jpsp1988.pdf
- HBR, Superforecasting, article. https://www.crforum.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/2016_Schoemaker_Tetlock_Superforecasting-HBR-May-2016.pdf
- Duke, Thinking in Bets, video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYNsSeYjkp4&feature=youtu.be
- HBR, 3 ways to improve, article. https://hbr.org/2018/01/3-ways-to-improve-your-decision-making
- Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow, video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjVQJdIrDJ0
- Dunning, Inside view, paper. https://books.google.de/books?hl=de&lr=&id=sayNAQAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA69&ots=D91q_0plcg&sig=BaFhbT9gOPkTFMQRg1L9JBpFnsA#v=onepage&q&f=false
- Tetlock, Open Mind, video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-07DJ7xVBis
- Numberphile, Monty Hall, video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0
- Gigerenzer, Bayesian Updating, paper. https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_2543495/component/file_2562163/content
- Malmendier, Overconfidence, paper. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w10813/w10813.pdf